2009 Oscar Predictions

Ah, the Oscars. Watching this show always makes me happy--although I am usually disappointed in the results, I have to admit. Regardless, year after year, I make my own predictions for the best in each major category and hope that for once, finally, the Academy will see the light...This year will be no exception: for your reading pleasure, my Oscar suggestions for the main events are as follows:

Best Supporting Actor:
In this category, can we choose anyone other than the late Heath Ledger? The answer is, of course, yes, and in looking at the Academy's snub of The Dark Knight in other categories that it rightfully belonged in, it is entirely possible that Ledger may not be chosen for this posthumous reward. Phillip Seymour Hoffman and Robert Downey, Jr. are worthy adversaries but Ledger truly became the Joker...and I nearly cried at the thought that he would not live to reprise the role in an upcoming Batman film.

Best Supporting Actress:
Penelope Cruz! Ever since seeing Cruz in Volver last year, I have come to realize that she is truly a talent; it's a shame that American directors and casting directors (outside of Woody Allen, director of her nominated performance in Vicky Cristina Barcelona) fail to see this and continue to cast her badly in films such as Sahara. A wonderful performance deserving of recognition.

Best Actor:
Kind of a toss-up here, being that all of the actors in this category put forth outstanding performances (especially Mickey Rourke and way to go on the comeback, man!) I have to predict, however, that I think Sean Penn will take the award. Penn always immerses himself in a role and Milk is no exception. It is possible that I will be surprised tomorrow night but...I think I'm probably right in this prediction.

Best Actress:
Hmmm...Now this is a competitive category! Anne Hathaway has truly come into her own with this role--however, it's her first nomination so the Academy will probably assume that she will be up for more Oscar-worthy roles in the future. What it really comes down to, I think, are the two excessively nominated and severely under-awarded actresses in this category: Meryl Streep and Kate Winslet. Who do I want to win? Winslet. Her portrayal of a former Nazi prison guard in The Reader was heartwrenching and real. Who will likely win? Streep. She has been nominated 15 times for Oscar and has gone home with him only twice. Winslet has been looked over 5 times but it seems likely that Streep will win.

Best Picture:
Now this is a difficult choice. For me, it's between Slumdog Millionaire, The Reader and Benjamin Button. Which film deserves this recognition? Probably Millionaire. Will it be chosen? Probably not. It's a popular but independent feature--the word independent usually kills any chance of a best picture award. My guess is that the statue will be bestowed upon Benjamin Button.

Best Director:
Although I love the work of David Fincher (Fight Club, Zodiac, Se7en) I do not feel that Benjamin is his best film to date. Therefore, I would like to give the Oscar to The Reader. This category is also difficult, however, because one must put what they feel about the film aside and examine what the director was trying to say and whether or not it came through. In my opinion, The Reader accomplishes the emotion and feeling that Stephen Daldry intended. Who will win? My prediction is Gus Van Sant for Milk.

So now it is time to get dressed in your finest (or sweats like me), sit back and watch to see the results live (or on YouTube later on tomorrow night) with your Oscar check-off sheet in one hand and a glass of champagne in the other (or bottle of beer, again, like me). Good night all and may the best--according to me--win!